Tuesday, August 19, 2014

For the final quarter of last year, euro area recovery gathered strong pace and grew by 0.3%, from 0


The downward revision in Chinese manufacturing Purshasing Managers Index seems to persist and for the second month of the year. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell at seven month low of 48.3 in February, from 49.5 in January with new export jrs express orders and business conditions following slower rate of expansion. The final February reading for China's jrs express PMI will be released on March 3 rd , 2014, which may show better outcome for the world's second largest economy.
Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co- Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "February's flash reading of the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI moderated further as new orders and production contracted, reflecting the renewed destocking activities. The building-up of disinflationary pressures implies jrs express that the underlying momentum for manufacturing growth could be weakening. We believe Beijing policy jrs express makers should and can fine-tune jrs express policy jrs express to keep growth at a steady pace in the coming year."
The declining trend in China's PMI intensifies economists' jrs express fears predicting slower economic expansion than last year- at 7.4%, which is the lowest since 1990. However, China surprised economists jrs express for the first month of the year and posted a large increase in lending. Chinese banks posted a large increase in lending during jrs express January and surprised economists. Chinese banks issued 1.32 trillion yuan ($218 billion) in loans in January, 837billion jrs express yuan (173%) more than was issued in December and 250 billion yuan (23%) more than was issued in January 2013. Bank lending usually surges in January as financial institutions receive new quotas and offer credit at the start of the year to earn more interest, according to economists at ANZ, Citigroup Inc. and Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.
In the Eurozone, the PMI signals robust recovery as new orders show largest rise since mid- 2011. The flash estimate of the Markit Eurozone jrs express PMI Composite Output Index fell slightly to 52.7 in February, but remained close to January's 31 month high of 52.9. The PMI is now holding levels of above 50 for eight successive months, signaling a continuous expansion of business activity since last July. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: "Looking at the latest two months as a whole, the PMI suggests the region is on course to see GDP expand by up to 0.5% in the first quarter, which would be the strongest growth for three years. France, where malaise in the domestic economy is offsetting better export jrs express performance and suggests there is a risk of the French economy contracting again in the first quarter. Germany, on the other hand, is likely to see GDP increase by as much as 0.7%."
For the final quarter of last year, euro area recovery gathered strong pace and grew by 0.3%, from 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, which is the third quarterly growth since the end of an 18 month recession. Economic growth in Germany and France, the euro's two largest economies, marginally exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter and offered hope for a better 2014. German growth accelerated to 0.4% in the last quarter from a rise in exports and capital investment, up from 0.3% in the previous three months. The French economy expanded by 0.3% and the statistics office revised up the third quarter growth from -0.1% to flat. The Germany Economy Ministry said that it expects GDP growth of 1.8% in 2014, more than four times faster than in 2013 as a whole. In Italy, its economy expanded marginally by 0.1%, while Spain reported 0.3% fourth quarter growth, which is the second successive quarter of expansion.
In Japan, trade deficit hit a record high and widened to an unprecedented Y2.79 trillion ($27.4 bn) in January, more than Y1trillion jrs express larger than the previous record, according to the official announcement from the finance ministry. The previous record of Japanese trade deficit was back in January 2013 of Y1.63 trillion. Japanese high spending in oil imports and gas, since the Fukushima nuclear accident, has exceeded the value of its exports since 2011 and combined with the sharp decline in yen from late 2012 have led to high numbers of trade deficit.
For January 2014, Japanese export volume declined for the first time in four months as the Chinese Lunar New Year brought lower demand from China. The position of Japanese trade deficit is reflected in the weak economic data that the economy shows for its GDP growth. According to preliminary estimates, from the Cabinet office, for quarterly gross domestic product data, Japan's GDP growth disappointed for the last three months of 2013 and increased by 0.3% in October-December quarter, of 1% on annualized terms, less than the median projection of 2.8% in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The small increase in the value of exports, at 0.4%, was not enough to balance jrs express a 3.5% surge in imports. However, Japan's jrs express GD

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